CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa - Even some of Ben Carson's most steadfast admirers have developed a wondering eye.
With the Iowa caucuses just three weeks away, the ardent conservatives who buoyed Carson's Republican candidacy from the start remain unsure whether whether they will caucus for the retired neurosurgeon. Many of them have been courted away by Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.) and Marco Rubio (Fla.) while Carson's campaign stumbled through internal disputes and gaffes that raised questions about his readiness for the Oval Office.
"I was pretty strong for Ben Carson until the terrorist attacks, and then Cruz became more interesting. But in three weeks, it could all be different again," Deb Douglass, 48, said during a Carson town hall in Panora. "I would say in previous caucuses I was very determined in who I wanted. This time, I'm still a little unsure."
Douglass, like many voters attending Carson's Iowa campaign events on Wednesday and Thursday, named Carson, Cruz and Rubio as her top choices ahead of the Feb. 1 caucuses. Like many of the attendees interviewed, she cited character and integrity as the most important qualities in whomever she ultimately chooses.
Carson has that, attendees said. But other candidates too.
Double-digit Leads Disappear
He once dominated the field in Iowa, with double-digit leads in October over the other candidates, even real estate mogul Donald Trump, according to several statewide polls. But Carson withered under the spotlight last month as he faced harsh scrutiny over his grasp of national security issues. He has fallen to fourth place in Iowa and nationally, according to polling averages by RealClearPolitics, while Cruz has surged ahead.
Now, one question is whether Carson can hang onto the 9 per cent of Iowa Republicans who currently support him, according to the most recent average from RealClearPolitics. While not enough to win Iowa, it's enough to place strongly and take some momentum into the next battles.
Carson's campaign team was further shaken at year's end with the resignation of several top advisers, including the campaign manager and communications director.
His critics say the harsh media glare and management missteps revealed that he is unprepared to take office. Carson's rivals have all but counted him out, positioning themselves to inherit his consistent 9 to 10 per cent support in the polls.
To reverse the tide of negative media attention, Carson has begun a national push to reassure voters that he is presidential material. In addition to appointing Robert Dees, a retired Army major general, as his campaign chairman and Ed Brookover as the new campaign manager, Carson has also indicated that he will expand his communications team.
His campaign plans to release several policy papers in the coming weeks aimed at disproving his perceived lack of policy expertise, many of which Carson says were waiting on the shelf for publication. He has also embarked on a grueling campaign schedule in the Hawkeye State.
At its core, Carson's pitch remains focused on his faith-driven message about compassion and resilience. His time in the final week before the Iowa contest appears to be aimed at reminding voters why they first became interested in his candidacy.
And there are still flashes of the grass-root excitement that led him to enter the race. Hundreds continue to gather at Carson's events for a chance to hear the candidate - an unexpected showing for a campaign that has repeatedly been declared to be on its deathbed. Even his critics say they remain strongly move by his inspirational life story of rising from poverty in Detroit to the top of the medical field at Johns Hopkins Hospital in baltimore.
In an interview Thursday, Dees said: "Dr. Carson has an amazing message, and w have frankly amazing energy. We've got all this, it's sort of been pent up - there just hasn't been anybody pulling the trigger.
"The reality is some people have fans, but Dr. Carson has believers."
But the success of the Republican presidential candidate's 11th-hour campaign overhaul will come down to whether he can reignite the organic support of Iowa's social conservatives.
'Going to be About Integrity'
"I'm not sure how I'm going to make my final decision. Hopefully I'll hear a definitive moment or word that will make a difference," said Arlyn Stuart, who attended a Carson event in Pella on Wednesday. "I'm not a single-issue voter. There's no way I'm going to agree with everything a candidate says. It is going to be about integrity."
The true test will come on caucus day. Carson's crowds are robust. But it's unclear whether he has organised his enormous grass-roots support into an actual voter-turnout effort.
And the stakes are high. Iowa represents Carson's best chance to gain momentum to remain in the race in the long-run.
"It's helpful to see them in prison. I want to see Jesus in them," Charmaine Gray, 60, said during a Carson town hall in Panora. "I don't know who I'm going to support, but the Lord is going to guide me. I'm here to do what He wants me to do."
Without a proven get-out-the-vote effort, Carson's showing on Feb. 1 will come down to caucus-goers' last impressions of him on the campaign trail.
"The strategy is to keep talking. There are a lot of narratives out there that we have to overcome. We're in a process of disabusing people of those notions," Carson told reporters Wednesday. "And hopefully there's enough time to do that."
There may not be.
After the event in Pella, Stuart remained uncertain when asked whether he had heard the "definitive" moment he needed to make up his mind.
"No, not yet," Stuart said. "I liked what he said. But I haven't decided."
Source: Washington Post
